The recent election saw a bold prediction by Dick Morris about Romney's chances of winning the election. Bold, amazing and wrong. Unfortunately, for Mr. Romney's supporters the actual odds were running against him, some put him as high as an 8-1 underdog.
Chance forecasts which we intend to rely upon have a curious feature: "amazing miracles" happen frequently and snatch a sure victory away from us.
The actual odds Lucy would have followed through on her professed commitment were, as we know, zero.
But the chances that an involuntary muscle spasm would cause her to snatch away the ball were "astronomical".
A final exploration between the world of chance and strategy is from Guys and Dolls.
(For a game theoretic explanation of the strategy choices, please see Presh Talwalkar's Game Theory and Charlie Brown.)
Happy Thanksgiving, and avoid getting cider in your ear.
